ATLAS uses these scenarios to pre-fill the scenario workbench with CDRs, affected ARTCCs, and trigger conditions. Click "Model This" on any scenario to open Scenario Workbench prefilled. Activation status is not tracked here — check ATCSCC for live status.
Pre-Built Scenarios
EC-1
East Coast Convective — Scenario 1
Northeast / Mid-Atlantic
Standard east coast convective bypass. Routes traffic through western Pennsylvania and Ohio to avoid convective cells along the coast. Most commonly activated scenario during summer convective season.
Trigger: Convective SIGMETs over NJ/PA/DE coast
CDRs USED
CAMRN4NEWARK1BIGGY5
CENTERS AFFECTED
ZNYZDCZIDZOB
EC-2
East Coast Convective — Scenario 2
Mid-Atlantic / Southeast
Alternate east coast routing used when Scenario 1's western path is also congested or weather-affected. Traffic pushed further west through eastern Ohio and WV.
Trigger: Both coastal and PA routing blocked by weather
CDRs USED
HELON4DIXIE6ACY2
CENTERS AFFECTED
ZDCZTLZID
FL-1
Florida Convective — Scenario 1
Southeast / Florida
Standard Florida convective bypass. Summer afternoon thunderstorms over central Florida routinely require major rerouting of north-south traffic up and down the east coast.
Trigger: Convective SIGMETs over central/south Florida
CDRs USED
MARLN4DADES1SSCOT3
CENTERS AFFECTED
ZMAZJXZTL
MW-1
Midwest Convective
Midwest / Great Plains
Reroutes north-south traffic around Midwest convective activity. Commonly used during spring severe weather season. Affects major flows through Chicago center (ZAU) and southern ARTCCs.
Trigger: Convective SIGMETs over KS/MO/IA corridor
CDRs USED
CMSKY2MIZAR4WAKER1
CENTERS AFFECTED
ZAUZKCZMEZFW
SW-1
Southwest Congestion
Southwest
Redistributes traffic around southern California and Arizona airspace congestion. Used during summer when ZLA and ZAB reach sector saturation from leisure travel demand peaks.
Trigger: High demand at KLAX/KLAS/KPHX causing ZLA sector saturation
CENTERS AFFECTED
ZLAZABZLC
WC-1
West Coast IFR / Fog
West Coast
Manages flow when San Francisco Bay Area or LAX are under IFR / low-visibility conditions. Marine layer-induced fog is a year-round concern at KSFO and KOAK, requiring upstream GDPs.
Trigger: IFR conditions at KSFO or KOAK — marine layer/fog
CENTERS AFFECTED
ZOAZLAZLC
Terms Explained
Confidence Score (ATLAS Engine)
0–1 score on scenario outputs. Computed from: cause type (weather = HIGH, staffing = LOW), data completeness, and model sensitivity. A score of 0.85 means the throughput/delay estimates are tightly bounded. Below 0.5 means high uncertainty — treat outputs as directional only.
OBSERVED vs MODELED vs ESTIMATED
Data provenance labels on every ATLAS output. OBSERVED = direct from a live source (FAA ArcGIS, OpenSky ADS-B, NWS). MODELED = derived by the ATLAS engine (mitigation scores, CDR crosswalk). ESTIMATED = heuristic fill-in where live data is unavailable. Never mix trust levels when building a brief.
Mitigation Score (0–1)
ATLAS ranks each mitigation option by composite score: effectiveness × (1 − airline disruption proxy) × (1 − downstream spill risk) × (1 − complexity cost). A score above 0.7 = strong fit. Below 0.45 = situational only. Scores are not forecasts — they represent model confidence in the option given the constraint geometry and traffic data.
Traffic Exposure — Partial Coverage
At GA-heavy airports (TEB, VNY, APA), ADS-B equipage for Part 91 corporate/charter ops is incomplete. ATLAS flags these with ⚠ PARTIAL. The live ADS-B count will undercount the actual exposure. Add a manual GA estimate when briefing these airports.
Bounding-Box Intersection
Current ATLAS method for matching drawn constraints to airports and fixes: any airport whose coordinates fall inside the lon/lat bounding box of the drawn shape is included. This over-includes at shape edges. PostGIS polygon intersection planned. Verify edge airports manually.
⚠ ATLAS playbook data is for decision-support only. For live activation status, consult the FAA ATCSCC at fly.faa.gov.